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Spread: Lakers (-3.5)

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 19 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.3KEvent: Trail Blazers vs. Lakers

Polymarket indicative prices · 21s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.0¢
Lakers
52.0¢
Trail Blazers
—
Spread
anomaly39Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$3.2K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 21s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Trail Blazers · $439 net·3 wallets·$473 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTrail Blazers$2.6K@ 53¢·0xabf5…cfeb

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$37
6h
−$3.1K
tracked
$3.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Trail Blazers · $439 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 19h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 27 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard7 linked markets · $5.5K gross
0x4278…0e922 linked markets · $5.0K gross
BullishBarb2 linked markets · $3.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Trail Blazers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLakers · $37
6hTrail Blazers · $3.1K
24hTrail Blazers · $3.1K

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Trail Blazers fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.0¢
VWAP 24h47.01¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d47.01¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$3.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
52.5¢$34.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
42.5¢$23.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5
46.5¢$17.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5
52.5¢$7.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lakers (-23.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.