PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Culture→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $8.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $147.0KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets October 29 - October 31, 2026?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

7.95¢
YES
92.05¢
NO
1.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:101 trades$8.3K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $337 net·6 wallets·$963 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.7K@ 99¢·0x3d63…1b7f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$2.2K
tracked
$8.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: YES · $337 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 49

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
upont3 linked markets · $39.5K gross
ElonSimp6 linked markets · $17.5K gross
0x9b257ead1a6240d4ab5c2ae02534 linked markets · $3.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $317 → $96 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.2K
6hNO · $2.2K
24hNO · $6.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.95¢
VWAP 24h4.66¢▲ above by 3.3pp
VWAP 7d4.66¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$377
20¢
$185
15¢
$114
10¢
$78
5¢
← now
$1.4K
0¢
$6.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
8.45¢$111.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
0.15¢$109.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
0.95¢$92.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
0.15¢$82.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
83.25¢$70.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5.5¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
70.5¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
94.5¢$856.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.