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Game Spread: Arthur Fils (-3.5) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+3.5)

● quote 1801 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.7KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils

Indicative prices · 1801 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

45.0¢
Arthur Fils
55.0¢
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$2.3K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 935 min agoofficial metadata 914 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard$2.2K@ 57¢·VeryLucky888

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · $2.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1801 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 935 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 914 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins 3.5 or more total games than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Arthur Fils could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins 3.5 or more total games than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Arthur Fils could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $7.9K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hArthur Fils · $0
24hGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard · $2.0K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.0¢
VWAP 24h39.94¢▲ above by 5.1pp
VWAP 7d39.94¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$166

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Swiss Indoors Basel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils
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Set Handicap: Arthur Fils (-1.5) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+1.5)
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Set 2 Winner: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils
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Perricard vs. Fils: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
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Perricard vs. Fils: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Perricard vs. Fils: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.