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Swiss Indoors Basel: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar

● quote 1003 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $159.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $206.3KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar

Indicative prices · 1003 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Alejandro Tabilo
99.9¢
Rafael Jodar
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:161 trades$65.8K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1026 min agoofficial metadata 1003 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rafael Jodar · $5.8K net·6 wallets·$5.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$8.0K@ 97¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$65.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Rafael Jodar · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1003 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1026 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1003 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Rafael Jodar in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fastball673 linked markets · $3.8K gross
0xd9c9…66862 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Alejandro Tabilo UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $11.8K → $9.5K · 26s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alejandro Tabilo; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlejandro Tabilo · $0
6hAlejandro Tabilo · $0
24hRafael Jodar · $24.6K

Alejandro Tabilo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alejandro Tabilo price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Alejandro Tabilo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h10.93¢▼ below by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d10.94¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alejandro Tabilo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$8
25¢
$14.0K
20¢
$3.7K
15¢
$12.4K
10¢
$5
5¢
$556
0¢
← now
$35.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
—$3.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-4.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+4.5)
—$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
—$208priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
—$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5
—$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampRafael Jodar$13.5K
BUY VWAP 80.12¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.