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Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo

● quote 753 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $230.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $250.5KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo

Indicative prices · 753 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Cameron Norrie
1.5¢
Francisco Cerundolo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$96.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 781 min agoofficial metadata 754 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cameron Norrie · $11.1K net·12 wallets·$15.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$10.0K@ 67¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$96.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: Cameron Norrie · $11.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 753 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 781 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 754 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Francisco Cerundolo in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Francisco Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1fd1…af022 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francisco Cerundolo@ 66.0¢14h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Francisco Cerundolo DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $3.5K → $1.3K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Francisco Cerundolo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCameron Norrie · $0
6hCameron Norrie · $0
24hFrancisco Cerundolo · $9.8K

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Francisco Cerundolo fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h57.15¢▲ above by 42.8pp
VWAP 7d57.15¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$17.7K
90¢
$49
85¢
$40
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$10.4K
70¢
$5.1K
65¢
$1.7K
60¢
$6.4K
55¢
$6.0K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$9.3K
30¢
$28.8K
25¢
$6.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$10.0K@ 67.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 14 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5
—$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5
—$139priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo
—$76priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$71priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Francisco Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooFrancisco Cerundolo$22.8K
BUY VWAP 69.20¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.