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Guayaquil: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Rodrigo Pacheco

● quote 673 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $73.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $160.2KEvent: Guayaquil: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Rodrigo Pacheco

Indicative prices · 673 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.0¢
Juan Pablo Varillas
99.9¢
Rodrigo Pacheco
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution26Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$82.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 703 min agoofficial metadata 676 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rodrigo Pacheco · $61.5K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$61.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRodrigo Pacheco$46.9K@ 90¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$82.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: Rodrigo Pacheco · $61.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 673 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 703 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 676 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Rodrigo Pacheco in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Rodrigo Pacheco. This market will resolve to 'Rodrigo Pacheco' if Rodrigo Pacheco advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Pablo Varillas; negative values favor Rodrigo Pacheco. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuan Pablo Varillas · $0
6hJuan Pablo Varillas · $0
24hRodrigo Pacheco · $67.9K

Juan Pablo Varillas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Pablo Varillas price. Rodrigo Pacheco fills are converted to the complementary Juan Pablo Varillas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h9.52¢▼ below by 8.5pp
VWAP 7d9.52¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Pablo Varillas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$129
45¢
$0
40¢
$6
35¢
$1
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$11.3K
10¢
$0
5¢
$56.4K
0¢
← now
$14.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRodrigo Pacheco$46.9K@ 90.11¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Varillas vs. Pacheco: Match O/U 21.5
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Varillas vs. Pacheco: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Rodrigo Pacheco
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Varillas vs. Pacheco: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Varillas vs. Pacheco: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Rodrigo Pacheco: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Varillas vs. Pacheco: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Rodrigo Pacheco (-1.5) vs Juan Pablo Varillas (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseRodrigo Pacheco$46.9K
BUY VWAP 90.11¢·1 fill
FlaznorpRodrigo Pacheco$13.1K
BUY VWAP 95.18¢·7 fills
HVABRodrigo Pacheco$11.3K
BUY VWAP 81.37¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.