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Set Handicap: Elena Rybakina (-1.5) vs Leylah Fernandez (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.9KEvent: Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Elena Rybakina
—
Leylah Fernandez
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection64Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:7 trades$4.7K trackedsource coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 39 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElena Rybakina$3.0K@ 100¢·Kangtamqf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Leylah Fernandez pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.0K
6h
−$1.3K
tracked
$4.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Leylah Fernandez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Elena Rybakina" if Elena Rybakina wins by 2 or more sets than Leylah Fernandez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Elena Rybakina can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Leylah Fernandez in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Elena Rybakina" if Elena Rybakina wins by 2 or more sets than Leylah Fernandez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Elena Rybakina can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $7.1K gross
0x3c36…39232 linked markets · $3.3K gross
wingwingwin2 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elena Rybakina; negative values favor Leylah Fernandez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeylah Fernandez · $3.0K
6hLeylah Fernandez · $1.3K
24hLeylah Fernandez · $1.3K

Elena Rybakina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elena Rybakina price. Leylah Fernandez fills are converted to the complementary Elena Rybakina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h81.76¢
VWAP 7d81.76¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elena Rybakina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$52
45¢
$1.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
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Game Spread: Elena Rybakina (-4.5) vs Leylah Fernandez (+4.5)
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Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5
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Set 2 Winner: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
—$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 22.5
—$587priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Elena Rybakina vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.