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Spread: Heat (-3.5)

● quote 240 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.3KEvent: Heat vs. Hornets

Indicative prices · 240 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
Heat
50.5¢
Hornets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly34Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$1.4K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Heat · $284 net·3 wallets·$284 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHeat$1.0K@ 50¢·0x9e3e…f882

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$15
6h
+$1.4K
tracked
$1.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Heat · $284 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 240 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • •Less than 13h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Heat" if the Heat win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Heat" if the Heat win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SunlineTicker3 linked markets · $5.3K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $2.7K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $2.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Heat; negative values favor Hornets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHeat · $15
6hHeat · $1.4K
24hHeat · $1.4K

Heat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Heat price. Hornets fills are converted to the complementary Heat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h50.08¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d50.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Heat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
← now
$15
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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4.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.