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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $314.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $239.8KEvent: SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC - More Markets

Indicative prices · 17s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

55.5¢
Arsenal FC
44.5¢
SK Slavia Praha
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection87Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$106.0K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arsenal FC · $290 net·2 wallets·$3.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSK Slavia Praha$92.4K@ 45¢·1l2ihj34li12u34

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

SK Slavia Praha pressure: $92.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$92.4K
6h
−$82.3K
tracked
$106.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: Arsenal FC · $290 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from SK Slavia Praha or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "SK Slavia Praha".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for November 4 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "SK Slavia Praha". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $14.4K gross
Flaznorp4 linked markets · $293 gross
derric-terrain3 linked markets · $19 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY SK Slavia Praha@ 45.0¢24m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arsenal FC; negative values favor SK Slavia Praha. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSK Slavia Praha · $92.4K
6hSK Slavia Praha · $82.3K
24hSK Slavia Praha · $84.7K

Arsenal FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arsenal FC price. SK Slavia Praha fills are converted to the complementary Arsenal FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.5¢
VWAP 24h54.92¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d54.92¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arsenal FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$96.6K
50¢
$9.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSK Slavia Praha$92.4K@ 45.0¢
1l2ihj34li12u340xb52e…285c
🐋—27 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: SK Slavia Praha (-1.5)
1.25¢$75.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
57.5¢$40.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
34.5¢$7.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5
—$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
—$501priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
—$48priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

1l2ihj34li12u34SK Slavia Praha$92.4K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.