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Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano

● quote 1197 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $132.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.1KEvent: Florence: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano

Indicative prices · 1197 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
Matthew William Donald
99.9¢
Filippo Romano
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$210.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 73%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1210 min agoofficial metadata 1199 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matthew William Donald · $648 net·11 wallets·$7.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFilippo Romano$196.0K@ 98¢·Tan4321

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$210.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: Matthew William Donald · $648 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1197 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1210 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1199 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew William Donald and Filippo Romano in the Florence, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Filippo Romano. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Romano' if Filippo Romano advances against Matthew William Donald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Matthew William Donald DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.0K → $8.4K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matthew William Donald; negative values favor Filippo Romano. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatthew William Donald · $0
6hMatthew William Donald · $0
24hFilippo Romano · $201.3K

Matthew William Donald price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matthew William Donald price. Filippo Romano fills are converted to the complementary Matthew William Donald probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h2.94¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d2.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matthew William Donald price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$242
35¢
$12
30¢
$3
25¢
$27
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$815
10¢
$35
5¢
$4.5K
0¢
← now
$200.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFilippo Romano$196.0K@ 98.0¢
Tan43210x4ab9…077b
🐋—about 21 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Matthew William Donald (-1.5) vs Filippo Romano (+1.5)
—$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Donald vs. Romano: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Matthew William Donald vs Filippo Romano
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Donald vs. Romano: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matthew William Donald vs. Filippo Romano: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Donald vs. Romano: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Donald vs. Romano: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Donald vs. Romano: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tan4321Filippo Romano$199.5K
BUY VWAP 98.02¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.