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Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Tristan Schoolkate

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $726.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $139.4KEvent: Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Tristan Schoolkate
4.0¢
Keegan Smith
99.9¢
Tristan Schoolkate
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$41.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Keegan Smith · $985 net·5 wallets·$4.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKeegan Smith$16.5K@ 48¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Tristan Schoolkate pressure: $5.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.3K
6h
+$13.9K
tracked
$41.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: Keegan Smith · $985 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tristan Schoolkate or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Tristan Schoolkate in the Guangzhou 2, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Tristan Schoolkate. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Schoolkate' if Tristan Schoolkate advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Keegan Smith DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $3.9K → $0 · 47s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Keegan Smith; negative values favor Tristan Schoolkate. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTristan Schoolkate · $5.3K
6hKeegan Smith · $13.9K
24hKeegan Smith · $13.9K

Keegan Smith price VWAP

Volume-weighted Keegan Smith price. Tristan Schoolkate fills are converted to the complementary Keegan Smith probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h33.1¢▼ below by 29.1pp
VWAP 7d33.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Keegan Smith price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$10
45¢
$22.1K
40¢
$468
35¢
$730
30¢
$320
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
$6.9K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$3
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$5.0K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKeegan Smith$16.5K@ 47.6¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Keegan Smith vs. Tristan Schoolkate: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tristan Schoolkate (-1.5) vs Keegan Smith (+1.5)
0.0¢$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Smith vs. Schoolkate: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Keegan Smith vs Tristan Schoolkate
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Smith vs. Schoolkate: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Smith vs. Schoolkate: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Smith vs. Schoolkate: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Smith vs. Schoolkate: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstKeegan Smith$20.8K
BUY VWAP 47.4¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesTristan Schoolkate$10.6K
BUY VWAP 80.1¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.