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Wizards vs. Cavaliers

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 41 minutesLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $231.4KEvent: Wizards vs. Cavaliers

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

23.5¢
Wizards
76.5¢
Cavaliers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$86.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cavaliers · $26.7K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$29.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCavaliers$22.4K@ 77¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cavaliers pressure: $28.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.5K
6h
−$25.2K
tracked
$86.7K

6 verified profitable wallets: Cavaliers · $26.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cavaliers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards".

•If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 7:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $14.0K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $12.7K gross
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $10.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cavaliers@ 77.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cavaliers@ 77.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Wizards; negative values favor Cavaliers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCavaliers · $28.5K
6hCavaliers · $25.2K
24hCavaliers · $35.6K

Wizards price VWAP

Volume-weighted Wizards price. Cavaliers fills are converted to the complementary Wizards probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.5¢
VWAP 24h23.23¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d23.23¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Wizards price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$86.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCavaliers$22.4K@ 77.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCavaliers$16.0K@ 76.0¢
xasdasdas210xaaaa…74d8
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
51.5¢$181.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
55.5¢$68.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
46.5¢$30.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5
49.5¢$28.8Kpriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 260.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamCavaliers$22.4K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
xasdasdas21Cavaliers$16.0K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
Lakersfan111Wizards$14.1K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.