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Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Matej Dodig

● quote 1278 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $123.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $241.4KEvent: Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Matej Dodig

Indicative prices · 1278 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Marco Trungelliti
3.2¢
Matej Dodig
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$151.9K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1289 min agoofficial metadata 1280 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matej Dodig · $625 net·5 wallets·$1.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMarco Trungelliti$92.9K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$151.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: Matej Dodig · $625 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1278 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1289 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1280 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Matej Dodig in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Matej Dodig. This market will resolve to 'Matej Dodig' if Matej Dodig advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Marco Trungelliti22h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Marco Trungelliti@ 67.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Matej Dodig DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $5.6K → $181 · 48s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Trungelliti; negative values favor Matej Dodig. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarco Trungelliti · $0
6hMarco Trungelliti · $0
24hMatej Dodig · $51.6K

Marco Trungelliti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Trungelliti price. Matej Dodig fills are converted to the complementary Marco Trungelliti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h82.9¢▲ above by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d82.89¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Trungelliti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$96.9K
90¢
$597
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$0
75¢
$1
70¢
$97
65¢
$215
60¢
$41
55¢
$19.1K
50¢
$10.0K
45¢
$24.0K
40¢
$1
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMarco Trungelliti$92.9K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYMarco Trungelliti$10.0K@ 55.34¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYMarco Trungelliti$10.0K@ 51.11¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYMarco Trungelliti$18.3K@ 47.63¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 23 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Matej Dodig (-1.5) vs Marco Trungelliti (+1.5)
—$36priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Dodig: Match O/U 21.5
—$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Marco Trungelliti vs. Matej Dodig: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Dodig: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Dodig: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Dodig: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Marco Trungelliti vs Matej Dodig
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Dodig: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstMarco Trungelliti$49.1K
BUY VWAP 51.83¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.