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Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $303.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $449.0KEvent: Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
100.0¢
Flavio Cobolli
0.1¢
Stan Wawrinka
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$175.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Flavio Cobolli · $46.6K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$70.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlavio Cobolli$20.2K@ 74¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Flavio Cobolli pressure: $40.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$40.4K
6h
+$89.3K
tracked
$175.1K

12 verified profitable wallets: Flavio Cobolli · $46.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Flavio Cobolli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Stan Wawrinka in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Stan Wawrinka. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $4.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 91.0¢54m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Flavio Cobolli57m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 72.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Flavio Cobolli UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $59.2K → $30.0K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Flavio Cobolli; negative values favor Stan Wawrinka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFlavio Cobolli · $40.4K
6hFlavio Cobolli · $89.3K
24hFlavio Cobolli · $107.0K

Flavio Cobolli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Flavio Cobolli price. Stan Wawrinka fills are converted to the complementary Flavio Cobolli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h80.2¢▲ above by 19.8pp
VWAP 7d80.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Flavio Cobolli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.8K
90¢
$29.1K
85¢
$9.2K
80¢
$4.2K
75¢
$10.4K
70¢
$88.6K
65¢
$11.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFlavio Cobolli$14.0K@ 99.9¢
LhordGryffin0x9909…311c
🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYStan Wawrinka$10.8K@ 9.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$20.2K@ 73.6¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLFlavio Cobolli$11.8K@ 69.4¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$20.0K@ 73.0¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$10.0K@ 72.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Flavio Cobolli (-1.5) vs Stan Wawrinka (+1.5)
0.0¢$10.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
0.0¢$2.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Flavio Cobolli (-2.5) vs Stan Wawrinka (+2.5)
0.0¢$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cobolli vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$695priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Flavio Cobolli vs. Stan Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$347priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
0.0¢$346priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cobolli vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$59priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cobolli vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cFlavio Cobolli$26.7K
BUY VWAP 73.5¢·2 fills
isco23Flavio Cobolli$20.0K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesFlavio Cobolli$19.5K
BUY VWAP 84.1¢·10 fills
ferrariChampions2026Flavio Cobolli$14.5K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·3 fills
LhordGryffinFlavio Cobolli$14.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Stan Wawrinka$11.9K
BUY VWAP 9.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.