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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

● quote 193 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $438.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $627.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

Indicative prices · 193 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Aurora Gaming
99.9¢
Liquid
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:186 trades$226.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 201 min agoofficial metadata 196 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $12.1K net·15 wallets(3🐋)·$63.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$36.2K@ 41¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$28.2K
tracked
$226.7K

15 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $12.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +56.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 193 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 201 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 196 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 10:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid.

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 match between Aurora Gaming and Liquid in the IEM Beijing Group B, initially scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $37.1K gross
Dane4ka2 linked markets · $15.6K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $14.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 44.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Liquid5h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Liquid@ 43.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +38.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 70.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -30.0pp
Latest book event: Liquid UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.8K → $6.6K · 31s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $0
6hAurora Gaming · $28.2K
24hAurora Gaming · $24.1K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Liquid fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h48.94¢▼ below by 48.8pp
VWAP 7d49.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$44.6K
65¢
$49.0K
60¢
$3.7K
55¢
$15.9K
50¢
$690
45¢
$1.7K
40¢
$77.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$4.9K
15¢
$1.1K
10¢
$348
5¢
$1.0K
0¢
← now
$25.6K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLiquid$10.7K@ 59.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$36.2K@ 41.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLiquid$11.8K@ 42.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYLiquid$10.8K@ 32.0¢
basementdweller30000x5e6e…be00
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYLiquid$11.6K@ 31.0¢
basementdweller30000x5e6e…be00
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$28.0K@ 70.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYLiquid$11.7K@ 31.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 15 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner
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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
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Games Total: O/U 2.5
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Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
—$287priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
—$29priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Aurora Gaming$36.3K
BUY VWAP 40.92¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Aurora Gaming$28.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
basementdweller3000Liquid$22.5K
BUY VWAP 31.47¢·2 fills
iDARKenjoyerLiquid$11.8K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Liquid$11.7K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·1 fill
IMAREALPERSONLiquid$10.7K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.