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Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $5.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $313.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

25.0¢
FURIA
75.0¢
FaZe
8.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution55Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:187 trades$107.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 46s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $22.4K net·6 wallets·$23.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$66.0K@ 44¢·Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

FURIA pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
+$63.4K
tracked
$107.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $22.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
8.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: -14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 8.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FURIA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 14:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than FaZe in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FaZe".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 match between FURIA and FaZe in the IEM Beijing Group A, initially scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than FaZe in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FaZe". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl2 linked markets · $204.2K gross
0xc9bf…81c03 linked markets · $52.7K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $8.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FURIA@ 43.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FURIA@ 43.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: FURIA DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $31 → $257 · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor FaZe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $1.5K
6hFURIA · $63.4K
24hFURIA · $85.6K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. FaZe fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.0¢
VWAP 24h44.15¢▼ below by 19.1pp
VWAP 7d44.02¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$14
65¢
$140
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.6K
45¢
$500
40¢
$106.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFURIA$66.0K@ 44.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
83.5¢$493.1Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner
84.55¢$113.8Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner
74.5¢$11.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
33.5¢$5.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
29.0¢$381priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5)
51.0¢$270priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-9.5) vs FaZe (+9.5)
0.55¢$268priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.5¢$139priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlFURIA$66.0K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
0xc9bf…81c0FURIA$22.7K
BUY VWAP 43.30¢·16 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.