PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Culture→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $5.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.2KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.1¢
YES
97.9¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$3.2K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $7 net·2 wallets·$12 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.3K@ 95¢·Elonurmom

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$511
tracked
$3.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $7 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
GoldenSpin2 linked markets · $6.1K gross
Elonurmom2 linked markets · $4.3K gross
bipbipbop3 linked markets · $2.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1
6hNO · $511
24hNO · $511

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.1¢
VWAP 24h4.51¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d4.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$4.1K
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
0.25¢$135.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
27.9¢$123.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
0.9¢$107.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
0.05¢$100.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
0.05¢$86.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6.5¢$2.7Mpriority32Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
93.5¢$2.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
6.5¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.