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France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $68.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $284.0KEvent: France declares state of emergency by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

14.5¢
YES
85.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$196.8K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 69%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 637 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $12.1K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$12.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$109.9K@ 85¢·0x6774…c635

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$196.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $12.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 637 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
GoriIIa2 linked markets · $11.2K gross
TBill12 linked markets · $3.6K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $356 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 82.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 87.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $391 → $313 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $56.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.5¢
VWAP 24h14.74¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d14.88¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$148.8K
10¢
← now
$60.2K
5¢
$130
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$25.5K@ 85.0¢0x6774…c635🐋—about 14 hours ago
SELLNO$44.4K@ 87.02¢0x6774…c635🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYNO$109.9K@ 84.53¢0x6774…c635🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 85.49¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—about 21 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x6774…c635No$109.9K
BUY VWAP 84.53¢·1 fill
StarryPathNo$11.8K
BUY VWAP 85.49¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.