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Cali: Hernan Casanova vs Gonzalo Bueno

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $212.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $133.6KEvent: Cali: Hernan Casanova vs Gonzalo Bueno
66.5¢
Hernan Casanova
33.5¢
Gonzalo Bueno
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets87Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$65.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hernan Casanova · $3.9K net·10 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGonzalo Bueno$20.0K@ 64¢·1234162

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Hernan Casanova pressure: $20.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$20.8K
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$65.0K

10 verified profitable wallets: Hernan Casanova · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 18.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hernan Casanova or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Gonzalo Bueno in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hernan Casanova' if Hernan Casanova advances against Gonzalo Bueno. This market will resolve to 'Gonzalo Bueno' if Gonzalo Bueno advances against Hernan Casanova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Hernan Casanova32m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Hernan Casanova@ 49.0¢35m ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Gonzalo Bueno41m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Gonzalo Bueno@ 51.0¢44m ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp
Latest book event: Gonzalo Bueno UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.7K → $12.8K · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hernan Casanova; negative values favor Gonzalo Bueno. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHernan Casanova · $20.8K
6hHernan Casanova · $2.1K
24hHernan Casanova · $2.1K

Hernan Casanova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hernan Casanova price. Gonzalo Bueno fills are converted to the complementary Hernan Casanova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h45.7¢▲ above by 20.8pp
VWAP 7d45.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hernan Casanova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$1.5K
60¢
$6.5K
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$26.2K
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$24.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHernan Casanova$10.0K@ 48.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYHernan Casanova$10.0K@ 48.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYGonzalo Bueno$20.0K@ 64.1¢
12341620x45e4…3c69
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Gonzalo Bueno (-1.5) vs Hernan Casanova (+1.5)
0.0¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Bueno: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$38priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Hernan Casanova vs Gonzalo Bueno
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Hernan Casanova vs Gonzalo Bueno
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Hernan Casanova (-1.5) vs Gonzalo Bueno (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Bueno: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Bueno: Match O/U 22.5
53.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Bueno: Match O/U 23.5
51.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstHernan Casanova$20.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
1234162Gonzalo Bueno$20.0K
BUY VWAP 64.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.