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Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?

● quote 870 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 17 hoursLiquidity: $635.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC

Indicative prices · 870 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 23 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:332 trades$467.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 881 min agoofficial metadata 871 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $12.4K net·23 wallets(4🐋)·$144.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$50.0K@ 49¢·SparYel

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$467.1K

23 verified profitable wallets: YES · $12.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 870 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 881 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 871 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 31, 2026 If Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $87.8K gross
Flaznorp3 linked markets · $51.5K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $22.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES16h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 49.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢19h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $78.4K → $150 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $196.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h48.66¢▼ below by 48.6pp
VWAP 7d48.63¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$36.7K
65¢
$22.3K
60¢
$10
55¢
$208
50¢
$87.0K
45¢
$330.1K
40¢
$4
35¢
$0
30¢
$18.3K
25¢
$13.0K
20¢
$8.5K
15¢
$1.8K
10¢
$1.7K
5¢
$5.2K
0¢
← now
$4.4K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$10.8K@ 67.29¢
wollao0xa975…78a3
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYYES$13.2K@ 50.0¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYYES$30.5K@ 73.61¢0xb38a…3293🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYYES$46.5K@ 49.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYYES$50.0K@ 49.0¢
SparYel0xa164…8b02
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 49.0¢
big8betz0xbfd4…526f
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 52.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 47.0¢
SebastianAde19960x4b40…2f6a
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 46.0¢
BruceWayne770xa2b5…4582
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYNO$12.6K@ 53.0¢
1l2ihj34li12u340xb52e…285c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 49.69¢
wollao0xa975…78a3
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesYes$52.2K
BUY VWAP 47.50¢·30 fills
SparYelYes$50.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7Yes$46.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0xb38a…3293Yes$30.5K
BUY VWAP 73.61¢·1 fill
FlaznorpNo$24.3K
BUY VWAP 58.12¢·10 fills
big8betzYes$21.8K
BUY VWAP 43.20¢·4 fills
Kch-TempNo$21.1K
BUY VWAP 51.56¢·3 fills
SebastianAde1996Yes$20.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$18.6K
BUY VWAP 52.66¢·18 fills
1l2ihj34li12u34No$13.8K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.