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Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Titouan Droguet

● quote 71 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $141.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $420.9KEvent: Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Titouan Droguet
99.9¢
Daniel Altmaier
5.2¢
Titouan Droguet
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:155 trades$129.1K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 77 min agoofficial metadata 67 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniel Altmaier · $11.1K net·10 wallets·$14.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniel Altmaier$9.8K@ 100¢·xabidaking

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$27.9K
tracked
$129.1K

10 verified profitable wallets: Daniel Altmaier · $11.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 71 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 77 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 67 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Altmaier and Titouan Droguet in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Titouan Droguet. This market will resolve to 'Titouan Droguet' if Titouan Droguet advances against Daniel Altmaier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $8.1K gross
Absing3 linked markets · $172 gross
Donkoo3 linked markets · $170 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Titouan Droguet DOWN 4.7pp · near-book depth $29 → $6 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Altmaier; negative values favor Titouan Droguet. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniel Altmaier · $0
6hTitouan Droguet · $27.9K
24hTitouan Droguet · $27.6K

Daniel Altmaier price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Altmaier price. Titouan Droguet fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Altmaier probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h61.5¢▲ above by 38.4pp
VWAP 7d61.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Altmaier price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$39.6K
90¢
$2.2K
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$5.7K
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$130
55¢
$24.2K
50¢
$5.2K
45¢
$11.3K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$2.9K
30¢
$3.1K
25¢
$3.3K
20¢
$11.9K
15¢
$11.3K
10¢
$47
5¢
$3.1K
0¢
$440

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cDaniel Altmaier$12.7K
BUY VWAP 19.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.