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Counter-Strike: NIP vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

● quote 68 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $308.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $448.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: NIP vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
99.9¢
NIP
0.1¢
MIBR
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets50Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:152 trades$140.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 73 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NIP · $2.5K net·7 wallets·$5.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNIP$21.1K@ 48¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$13.4K
tracked
$140.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: NIP · $2.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +52.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 68 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 73 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against MIBR.

•This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against NIP.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between NIP and MIBR in the Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against NIP. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 5h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 6h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
lllllllIlll2 linked markets · $38.5K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $26.8K gross
iii2522 linked markets · $8.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY NIP5h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY NIP5h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NIP@ 48.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +38.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NIP@ 48.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +33.0pp
Latest book event: MIBR DOWN 5.8pp · near-book depth $73 → $409 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor NIP; negative values favor MIBR. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNIP · $0
6hNIP · $13.4K
24hNIP · $14.5K

NIP price VWAP

Volume-weighted NIP price. MIBR fills are converted to the complementary NIP probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▲ above by 41.3pp
VWAP 7d58.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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NIP price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$24.2K
90¢
$97
85¢
$150
80¢
$6.0K
75¢
$151
70¢
$460
65¢
$4.1K
60¢
$25
55¢
$3.4K
50¢
$3.8K
45¢
$92.8K
40¢
$205
35¢
$0
30¢
$964
25¢
$4.2K
20¢
$64
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNIP$12.0K@ 48.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNIP$16.6K@ 48.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNIP$21.1K@ 48.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5)
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Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5
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Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lllllllIlllNIP$32.7K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·3 fills
CORGI8NIP$21.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.