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Raptors vs. Wizards

● quote 19s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $157.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $279.2KEvent: Raptors vs. Wizards
68.5¢
Raptors
31.5¢
Wizards
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly42Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$97.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raptors · $9.6K net·6 wallets·$19.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWizards$16.5K@ 31¢·monkeymashingkeyboard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Raptors pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
+$24.9K
tracked
$97.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: Raptors · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raptors or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors".

•If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo3 linked markets · $20.1K gross
BullishBarb2 linked markets · $11.6K gross
purplegatto2 linked markets · $10.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Raptors@ 69.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raptors; negative values favor Wizards. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaptors · $1.2K
6hRaptors · $24.9K
24hRaptors · $34.1K

Raptors price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raptors price. Wizards fills are converted to the complementary Raptors probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h66.8¢▲ above by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d66.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raptors price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$193
65¢
← now
$86.1K
60¢
$11.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWizards$16.5K@ 31.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Raptors (-5.5)
54.5¢$36.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
60.0¢$22.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
62.5¢$17.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
57.5¢$15.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)
0.0¢$5.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)
46.5¢$286priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
64.0¢$106priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wizards (-9.5)
0.0¢$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

monkeymashingkeyboardWizards$19.6K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·2 fills
quavooRaptors$16.2K
BUY VWAP 67.1¢·5 fills
BullishBarbRaptors$11.6K
BUY VWAP 66.2¢·4 fills
purplegattoRaptors$10.3K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.