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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $206.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Aurora Gaming
99.95¢
TheMongolz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$45.1K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:TheMongolz · $15.5K net·5 wallets·$15.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTheMongolz$9.9K@ 94¢·q7662504

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

TheMongolz pressure: $5.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.3K
6h
−$5.2K
tracked
$45.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: TheMongolz · $15.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from TheMongolz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 13:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against TheMongolz.

•This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Aurora Gaming and TheMongolz in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $23.5K gross
cruzNBA2 linked markets · $12.4K gross
yishiwucheng3 linked markets · $11.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: TheMongolz UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $1.0K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor TheMongolz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTheMongolz · $5.3K
6hTheMongolz · $5.2K
24hTheMongolz · $5.2K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. TheMongolz fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h23.42¢▼ below by 23.4pp
VWAP 7d23.42¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$6.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$3.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$259
20¢
$327
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$2.4K
5¢
$9.9K
0¢
← now
$14.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
61.5¢$260.6Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
5.0¢$37.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
96.5¢$6.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
50.0¢$345priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.0¢$53priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs TheMongolz (+6.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.