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Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $92.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $171.4KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
65.8¢
Juan Manuel La Serna
34.2¢
Franco Roncadelli
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$51.0K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Manuel La Serna · $13.4K net·14 wallets·$26.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Manuel La Serna$5.4K@ 47¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$882
6h
+$19.2K
tracked
$51.0K

14 verified profitable wallets: Juan Manuel La Serna · $13.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -29.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Franco Roncadelli. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Manuel La Serna@ 95.0¢46m ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp
Latest book event: Juan Manuel La Serna DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $22.9K → $26.1K · 28s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Manuel La Serna; negative values favor Franco Roncadelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFranco Roncadelli · $882
6hJuan Manuel La Serna · $19.2K
24hJuan Manuel La Serna · $19.3K

Juan Manuel La Serna price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Manuel La Serna price. Franco Roncadelli fills are converted to the complementary Juan Manuel La Serna probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.8¢
VWAP 24h70.2¢▼ below by 4.4pp
VWAP 7d70.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Manuel La Serna price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$333
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$992
80¢
$5.3K
75¢
$24.8K
70¢
$727
65¢
← now
$669
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$403
45¢
$9.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Serna vs. Roncadelli: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$62priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Serna vs. Roncadelli: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Juan Manuel La Serna vs. Franco Roncadelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Serna vs. Roncadelli: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Serna vs. Roncadelli: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Franco Roncadelli (-1.5) vs Juan Manuel La Serna (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Serna vs. Roncadelli: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesJuan Manuel La Serna$15.6K
BUY VWAP 78.5¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.