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Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $75.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.7KEvent: Cavaliers vs. 76ers
49.5¢
76ers
50.5¢
Cavaliers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection94Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$54.3K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCavaliers$50.9K@ 50¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cavaliers pressure: $50.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$50.9K
6h
−$47.4K
tracked
$54.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Cavaliers · $50.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cavaliers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "76ers" if the 76ers win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 22 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "76ers" if the 76ers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
lightotunnel352 linked markets · $3.5K gross
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $14 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cavaliers@ 51.0¢44m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 76ers; negative values favor Cavaliers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCavaliers · $50.9K
6hCavaliers · $47.4K
24hCavaliers · $47.4K

76ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 76ers price. Cavaliers fills are converted to the complementary 76ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d50.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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76ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$54.3K
45¢
← now
$5
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCavaliers$50.9K@ 50.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5
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Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
40.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 76ers (-17.5)
10.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Cavaliers$50.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.