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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $171.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
0.1¢
Astralis
100.0¢
MIBR
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:158 trades$39.5K trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MIBR · $3.2K net·9 wallets·$8.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMIBR$4.0K@ 100¢·Mr.Ape

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$796
6h
−$1.4K
tracked
$39.5K

9 verified profitable wallets: MIBR · $3.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against MIBR.

•This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win Map 2 against Astralis.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between Astralis and MIBR in the Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win Map 2 against Astralis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
acorp2 linked markets · $11.8K gross
hurrican2 linked markets · $11.1K gross
aaaa2982 linked markets · $10.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Astralis DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $229 → $202 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Astralis; negative values favor MIBR. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAstralis · $796
6hMIBR · $1.4K
24hMIBR · $1.4K

Astralis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Astralis price. MIBR fills are converted to the complementary Astralis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h35.6¢▼ below by 35.6pp
VWAP 7d35.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Astralis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$26
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$5.2K
50¢
$12.8K
45¢
$71
40¢
$3.4K
35¢
$139
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$2.4K
15¢
$2.5K
10¢
$55
5¢
$61
0¢
← now
$8.0K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
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Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5)
0.0¢$65priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.