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Game Spread: Iga Swiatek (-5.5) vs Ann Li (+5.5)

● quote 52 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.9KEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
99.4¢
Iga Swiatek
62.0¢
Ann Li
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$3.8K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 81 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ann Li · $556 net·3 wallets·$595 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAnn Li$1.4K@ 54¢·useruserlol

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.8K
tracked
$3.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: Ann Li · $556 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 81 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Iga Swiatek" if Iga Swiatek wins 5.5 or more total games than Ann Li in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ann Li".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Iga Swiatek could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Ann Li".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Iga Swiatek" if Iga Swiatek wins 5.5 or more total games than Ann Li in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ann Li". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Iga Swiatek could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Ann Li". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RoadTo1MillionUsd2 linked markets · $600 gross
0xd304…3ed22 linked markets · $141 gross
0xbfd7…f0bf2 linked markets · $40 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Iga Swiatek; negative values favor Ann Li. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIga Swiatek · $0
6hAnn Li · $1.8K
24hAnn Li · $3.7K

Iga Swiatek price VWAP

Volume-weighted Iga Swiatek price. Ann Li fills are converted to the complementary Iga Swiatek probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.4¢
VWAP 24h63.1¢▲ above by 36.3pp
VWAP 7d63.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Iga Swiatek price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.0K
40¢
$553
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.0¢$536.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wuhan Tennis Open: Completed Match: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.0¢$5.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Iga Swiatek (-1.5) vs Ann Li (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$512priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.0¢$479priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ann Li vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$410priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.