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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $105.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
9z
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly76Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$25.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY9z$15.4K@ 61¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$569
6h
−$1.4K
tracked
$25.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: 9z · $57 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -61.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between Aurora Gaming and 9z in the Thunderpick World Championship Group A, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $26.5K gross
hurrican2 linked markets · $23.0K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $22.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 9z@ 62.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: 9z UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $1.2K · 83s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor 9z. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h9z · $569
6h9z · $1.4K
24h9z · $18.0K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. 9z fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h40.4¢▲ above by 59.5pp
VWAP 7d40.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$37
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$532
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$30
50¢
$0
45¢
$151
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
$17.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY9z$15.4K@ 61.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A
100.0¢$541.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner
100.0¢$274.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.1¢$14.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)
0.0¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$743priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5)
0.0¢$42priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f4629z$15.4K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.