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LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 4 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $155.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $430.8KEvent: LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
0.1¢
Galions
100.0¢
Solary
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:193 trades$117.9K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 41s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Solary · $16.9K net·19 wallets·$42.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSolary$9.6K@ 100¢·3738

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Galions pressure: $16.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.7K
6h
−$545
tracked
$117.9K

19 verified profitable wallets: Solary · $16.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Galions or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win Game 4 against Solary.

•This market will resolve to "Solary" if Solary win Game 4 against Galions.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand Final match between Galions and Solary in the EMEA Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win Game 4 against Solary. This market will resolve to "Solary" if Solary win Game 4 against Galions. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
37385 linked markets · $68.6K gross
Sunshine.Smile4 linked markets · $36.0K gross
5e46h4 linked markets · $23.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Solary UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $1.0K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Galions; negative values favor Solary. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGalions · $16.7K
6hSolary · $545
24hSolary · $545

Galions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Galions price. Solary fills are converted to the complementary Galions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h25.4¢▼ below by 25.4pp
VWAP 7d25.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Galions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4.7K
75¢
$55
70¢
$3.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$10
50¢
$6.1K
45¢
$4
40¢
$22.5K
35¢
$10.3K
30¢
$14.4K
25¢
$2.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.2K
10¢
$2.9K
5¢
$13.2K
0¢
← now
$37.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
99.5¢$923.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 Winner
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LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$385.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5)
0.1¢$21.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5)
0.0¢$3.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Solary (+2.5)
0.0¢$3.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5)
0.0¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
0.0¢$2.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sunshine.SmileSolary$11.2K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.