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Bucks vs. Wizards

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $73.3KEvent: Bucks vs. Wizards
39.5¢
Bucks
60.5¢
Wizards
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection79Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 100%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:69 trades$295.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Wizards · $3.4K net·2 wallets·$10.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBucks$182.3K@ 40¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Bucks SETUP
What the tape says

Bucks pressure: $233.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$233.7K
6h
+$208.8K
tracked
$295.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Wizards · $3.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 100% · priority 67

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bucks or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks".

•If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:00PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $258.7K gross
meoooow2 linked markets · $19.2K gross
Herdonia6 linked markets · $10.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bucks@ 40.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Bucks@ 40.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bucks; negative values favor Wizards. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBucks · $233.7K
6hBucks · $208.8K
24hBucks · $223.1K

Bucks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bucks price. Wizards fills are converted to the complementary Bucks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h39.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d39.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bucks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$182.3K
35¢
← now
$113.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBucks$50.5K@ 39.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYBucks$182.3K@ 40.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYBucks$17.7K@ 38.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Wizards (-4.5)
48.5¢$205.1Kpriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5
48.5¢$37.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wizards (-5.5)
45.5¢$24.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5
46.5¢$22.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 252.5
22.0¢$13.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wizards (-20.5)
10.0¢$11.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wizards (-3.5)
55.0¢$11.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
42.5¢$10.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayBucks$232.7K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Bucks$19.6K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.