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Spread: Heat (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $286.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.9KEvent: Timberwolves vs. Heat
51.5¢
Heat
48.5¢
Timberwolves
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$60.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Timberwolves · $488 net·6 wallets·$1.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHeat$39.5K@ 51¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Heat SETUP
What the tape says

Heat pressure: $30.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$30.8K
6h
+$35.3K
tracked
$60.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: Timberwolves · $488 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 63

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Heat or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Heat wins by more than 1.5 points, the market will resolve to "Heat".

•If Timberwolves loses by fewer than 1.5 points, or wins the game outright, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Timberwolves and Heat, scheduled for October 21 at 7:30PM ET: If Heat wins by more than 1.5 points, the market will resolve to "Heat". If Timberwolves loses by fewer than 1.5 points, or wins the game outright, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until completed. If the game is canceled entirely, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay3 linked markets · $233.5K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $20.5K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $19.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Heat@ 52.0¢13m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Heat; negative values favor Timberwolves. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHeat · $30.8K
6hHeat · $35.3K
24hHeat · $35.5K

Heat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Heat price. Timberwolves fills are converted to the complementary Heat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h50.9¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Heat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$60.9K
45¢
$15
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHeat$39.5K@ 51.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—23 minutes ago

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Spread: Heat (-12.5)
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayHeat$39.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.