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Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hugo Dellien

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $77.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $107.4KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hugo Dellien
10.5¢
Luis Guto Miguel
89.5¢
Hugo Dellien
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$36.9K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hugo Dellien · $2.2K net·3 wallets·$2.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLHugo Dellien$9.4K@ 76¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Hugo Dellien SETUP
What the tape says

Hugo Dellien pressure: $5.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.3K
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$36.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Hugo Dellien · $2.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 65

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hugo Dellien or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Guto Miguel and Hugo Dellien in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luis Guto Miguel' if Luis Guto Miguel advances against Hugo Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Dellien' if Hugo Dellien advances against Luis Guto Miguel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Hugo Dellien UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $25.5K → $35.4K · 31s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luis Guto Miguel; negative values favor Hugo Dellien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHugo Dellien · $5.3K
6hHugo Dellien · $7.7K
24hHugo Dellien · $7.7K

Luis Guto Miguel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luis Guto Miguel price. Hugo Dellien fills are converted to the complementary Luis Guto Miguel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.5¢
VWAP 24h20.9¢▼ below by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d20.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luis Guto Miguel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1
30¢
$11.9K
25¢
$76
20¢
$9.4K
15¢
$196
10¢
← now
$15.3K
5¢
$1
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Miguel vs. Dellien: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$669priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Luis Guto Miguel (-1.5) vs Hugo Dellien (+1.5)
0.0¢$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Hugo Dellien (-3.5) vs Luis Guto Miguel (+3.5)
0.0¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Luis Guto Miguel vs. Hugo Dellien: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hugo Dellien
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hugo Dellien
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.