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Capitals vs. Senators

● quote just now
Sports→HockeyCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $447.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $204.9KEvent: Capitals vs. Senators

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.5¢
Capitals
49.5¢
Senators
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:44 trades$88.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCapitals$22.9K@ 50¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$19
6h
+$85.0K
tracked
$88.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Capitals · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals".

•If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for November 10 at 7:00PM ET: If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $47.1K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $27.3K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Capitals@ 50.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Capitals@ 50.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Capitals; negative values favor Senators. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSenators · $19
6hCapitals · $85.0K
24hCapitals · $85.8K

Capitals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Capitals price. Senators fills are converted to the complementary Capitals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.57¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d49.57¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Capitals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$64.1K
45¢
$24.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCapitals$22.9K@ 50.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCapitals$11.0K@ 48.0¢
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh0x0d6a…aa98
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
47.5¢$27.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
29.5¢$24.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 7.5
—$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 4.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Capitals (-3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooCapitals$45.3K
BUY VWAP 49.83¢·24 fills
BrotherObamaCapitals$22.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
keeptheblueflagflyinghighCapitals$11.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.