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Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)

Sports→BasketballCloses: 37 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $219Event: Pelicans vs. Mavericks
0.0¢
Pelicans
0.0¢
Mavericks
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$39 trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 150 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mavericks · $28 net·2 wallets·$28 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$13
6h
−$39
tracked
$39

2 verified profitable wallets: Mavericks · $28 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 150 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pelicans" if the Pelicans win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Mavericks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 14 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pelicans" if the Pelicans win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $274 gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $35 gross
0xcc78…d2022 linked markets · $28 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pelicans; negative values favor Mavericks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMavericks · $13
6hMavericks · $39
24hMavericks · $39

Pelicans price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pelicans price. Mavericks fills are converted to the complementary Pelicans probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h55.2¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d55.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pelicans price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$28
50¢
$11
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.