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Spread: Broncos (-20.5)

● quote 707 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $20.9KEvent: Chiefs vs. Broncos

Indicative prices · 707 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

4.9¢
Broncos
95.1¢
Chiefs
7.8¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution15Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:2 trades$19.7K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 94%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 275 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$19.7K@ 98¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$19.7K
tracked
$19.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
7.8¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 707 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 275 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 7.8¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 21:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 21 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chiefs".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Broncos, scheduled for November 1 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chiefs". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbc43…96d34 linked markets · $64.2K gross
0F622 linked markets · $39.3K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $8.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Broncos; negative values favor Chiefs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBroncos · $0
6hChiefs · $19.7K
24hChiefs · $19.7K

Broncos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Broncos price. Chiefs fills are converted to the complementary Broncos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.9¢
VWAP 24h1.7¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d1.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Broncos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$19.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$19.7K@ 98.3¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Chiefs vs. Broncos
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Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
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Spread: Broncos (-16.5)
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Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5
44.5¢$6.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
—$360priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5
50.5¢$73priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Chiefs$19.7K
BUY VWAP 98.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.