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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group B

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $383.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $512.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group B
99.9¢
100 Thieves
0.1¢
Liquid
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:183 trades$214.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Liquid · $2.4K net·8 wallets·$11.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELL100 Thieves$46.1K@ 100¢·0xc74e…e725

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Liquid pressure: $91.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$91.4K
6h
−$45.4K
tracked
$214.8K

8 verified profitable wallets: Liquid · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +44.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 44.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Liquid or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 19:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Liquid.

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against 100 Thieves.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners' match between 100 Thieves and Liquid in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group B, initially scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Liquid. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $36.3K gross
iii2522 linked markets · $18.5K gross
0xNuttawut2 linked markets · $12.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY 100 Thieves3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY 100 Thieves@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
Latest book event: 100 Thieves DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $12.5K → $1.6K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 100 Thieves; negative values favor Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiquid · $91.4K
6hLiquid · $45.4K
24hLiquid · $45.4K

100 Thieves price VWAP

Volume-weighted 100 Thieves price. Liquid fills are converted to the complementary 100 Thieves probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h77.6¢▲ above by 22.3pp
VWAP 7d77.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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100 Thieves price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$103.4K
90¢
$3.0K
85¢
$344
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$4.3K
65¢
$4.9K
60¢
$4.6K
55¢
$49.3K
50¢
$39.3K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$927
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELL100 Thieves$46.1K@ 99.9¢0xc74e…e725🐋—32 minutes ago
SELL100 Thieves$16.0K@ 99.9¢
aaaa2980x4ebc…a33d
🐋—34 minutes ago
SELL100 Thieves$15.1K@ 99.9¢
iii2520xed44…4f76
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUY100 Thieves$12.5K@ 56.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUY100 Thieves$13.5K@ 55.4¢0xc74e…e725🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUY100 Thieves$15.6K@ 52.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruit100 Thieves$33.6K
BUY VWAP 54.1¢·4 fills
0xc74e…e725100 Thieves$13.5K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·1 fill
aaaa298100 Thieves$12.3K
BUY VWAP 74.2¢·12 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.