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Santa Cruz 2: Hernan Casanova vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Sports→TennisSettlement: Juan Manuel La SernaLiquidity: $85.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $188.2KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Hernan Casanova vs Juan Manuel La Serna
0.0¢
Hernan Casanova payout
100.0¢
Juan Manuel La Serna payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:87 trades$80.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 183 min agoofficial metadata 38 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Manuel La Serna · $14.8K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$18.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJuan Manuel La Serna$32.0K@ 100¢·askilika

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Juan Manuel La Serna. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-20 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hernan Casanova' if Hernan Casanova advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Hernan Casanova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 38m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 38m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ameisgoat112 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Juan Manuel La Serna4h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Juan Manuel La Serna@ 82.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Manuel La Serna@ 62.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Juan Manuel La Serna UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $64.0K → $6.3K · 38s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hernan Casanova; negative values favor Juan Manuel La Serna. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHernan Casanova · $0
6hHernan Casanova · $25.7K
24hHernan Casanova · $751

Hernan Casanova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hernan Casanova price. Juan Manuel La Serna fills are converted to the complementary Hernan Casanova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h20.1¢▼ below by 20.1pp
VWAP 7d20.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hernan Casanova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$20.4K
35¢
$9.9K
30¢
$5
25¢
$12.1K
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$25
5¢
$399
0¢
← now
$33.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJuan Manuel La Serna$32.0K@ 99.9¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJuan Manuel La Serna$11.7K@ 74.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYJuan Manuel La Serna$17.0K@ 60.0¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Casanova vs. Serna: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$917priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Juan Manuel La Serna (-1.5) vs Hernan Casanova (+1.5)
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hernan Casanova vs. Juan Manuel La Serna: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Juan Manuel La Serna (-1.5) vs Hernan Casanova (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Serna: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Serna: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Serna: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casanova vs. Serna: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

askilikaJuan Manuel La Serna$21.7K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·3 fills
0x076d…8d4cJuan Manuel La Serna$16.5K
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.