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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $166.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.0KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar
37.5¢
Botic van de Zandschulp
62.5¢
Rafael Jodar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$37.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Botic van de Zandschulp · $2.3K net·2 wallets·$9.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$16.6K@ 64¢·xabidaking

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$14.2K
tracked
$37.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Botic van de Zandschulp · $2.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Botic van de Zandschulp and Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Botic van de Zandschulp' if Botic van de Zandschulp advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Botic van de Zandschulp. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 64.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Botic van de Zandschulp; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBotic van de Zandschulp · $0
6hRafael Jodar · $14.2K
24hRafael Jodar · $16.3K

Botic van de Zandschulp price VWAP

Volume-weighted Botic van de Zandschulp price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Botic van de Zandschulp probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h36.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d36.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Botic van de Zandschulp price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$37.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRafael Jodar$16.6K@ 64.0¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Zandschulp vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zandschulp vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zandschulp vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zandschulp vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zandschulp vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xabidakingRafael Jodar$16.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.