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South Alabama vs. Marshall

● quote 26s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 26 minutesLiquidity: $419.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.8KEvent: South Alabama vs. Marshall
54.5¢
South Alabama
45.5¢
Marshall
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$35.6K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 55s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarshall$13.2K@ 46¢·Elaran1993

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Marshall pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.5K
6h
−$31.0K
tracked
$35.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Marshall · $13.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Marshall or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Marshall" if Marshall win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between South Alabama and Marshall, scheduled for October 20 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama win the game. This market will resolve to "Marshall" if Marshall win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $30.6K gross
Elaran19932 linked markets · $25.3K gross
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $23.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Alabama; negative values favor Marshall. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarshall · $1.5K
6hMarshall · $31.0K
24hMarshall · $29.5K

South Alabama price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Alabama price. Marshall fills are converted to the complementary South Alabama probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h54.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d54.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Alabama price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$17.6K
50¢
← now
$18.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarshall$13.2K@ 46.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMarshall$11.9K@ 45.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 65.5
52.5¢$94.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: South Alabama (-2.5)
48.5¢$66.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 67.5
45.5¢$30.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: South Alabama (-3.5)
0.0¢$272priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 63.5
0.0¢$183priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 61.5
0.0¢$7priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: South Alabama (-14.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 41.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Marshall$13.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7Marshall$11.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.