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Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $57.7KEvent: FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF - More Markets

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

38.5¢
FC Barcelona
61.5¢
Real Madrid CF
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly22Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$17.3K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Real Madrid CF · $1.4K net·4 wallets·$1.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFC Barcelona$7.5K@ 41¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$128
6h
−$147
tracked
$17.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: Real Madrid CF · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for October 25 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $32.0K gross
GoalLineGhost4 linked markets · $7.7K gross
0F622 linked markets · $5.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FC Barcelona@ 41.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Barcelona; negative values favor Real Madrid CF. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hReal Madrid CF · $128
6hReal Madrid CF · $147
24hFC Barcelona · $14.4K

FC Barcelona price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Barcelona price. Real Madrid CF fills are converted to the complementary FC Barcelona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h41.45¢▼ below by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d41.27¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Barcelona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$19.6K
35¢
← now
$148
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
40.5¢$347.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score
73.5¢$16.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
—$8.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5
98.35¢$6.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
4.6¢$4.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)
—$4.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-3.5)
—$4.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 5.5
—$366priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooFC Barcelona$15.8K
BUY VWAP 41.51¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.