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Santa Cruz 2: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli

● quote 54 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $80.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $204.4KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli
0.1¢
Valerio Aboian
99.9¢
Franco Roncadelli
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$90.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Franco Roncadelli · $9.6K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$23.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFranco Roncadelli$22.4K@ 95¢·lsiflsliggjriek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$38.2K
tracked
$90.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: Franco Roncadelli · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Franco Roncadelli. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Valerio Aboian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Franco Roncadelli@ 99.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Franco Roncadelli UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $30.6K → $32.9K · 38s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valerio Aboian; negative values favor Franco Roncadelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValerio Aboian · $0
6hFranco Roncadelli · $38.2K
24hFranco Roncadelli · $38.2K

Valerio Aboian price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valerio Aboian price. Franco Roncadelli fills are converted to the complementary Valerio Aboian probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.0¢▼ below by 17.9pp
VWAP 7d18.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valerio Aboian price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$11
50¢
$159
45¢
$11.0K
40¢
$340
35¢
$301
30¢
$2.6K
25¢
$20.5K
20¢
$881
15¢
$49
10¢
$1.1K
5¢
$45.3K
0¢
← now
$5.7K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFranco Roncadelli$22.4K@ 95.0¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFranco Roncadelli$22.3K@ 94.9¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFranco Roncadelli$11.8K@ 71.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lsiflsliggjriekFranco Roncadelli$44.8K
BUY VWAP 94.9¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cFranco Roncadelli$11.8K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.