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Santa Cruz 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Carlos Maria Zarate

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $33.3KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Carlos Maria Zarate
43.5¢
Gonzalo Villanueva
56.5¢
Carlos Maria Zarate
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection52Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:25 trades$5.7K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Gonzalo Villanueva · $1.9K net·4 wallets·$1.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGonzalo Villanueva$2.2K@ 45¢·0xc8d9…df36

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Gonzalo Villanueva pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.9K
6h
+$4.7K
tracked
$5.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: Gonzalo Villanueva · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Gonzalo Villanueva or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Gonzalo Villanueva and Carlos Maria Zarate in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gonzalo Villanueva' if Gonzalo Villanueva advances against Carlos Maria Zarate. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Maria Zarate' if Carlos Maria Zarate advances against Gonzalo Villanueva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Gonzalo Villanueva UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $105 → $12.4K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Gonzalo Villanueva; negative values favor Carlos Maria Zarate. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGonzalo Villanueva · $2.9K
6hGonzalo Villanueva · $4.7K
24hGonzalo Villanueva · $4.7K

Gonzalo Villanueva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Gonzalo Villanueva price. Carlos Maria Zarate fills are converted to the complementary Gonzalo Villanueva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h44.6¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d44.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Gonzalo Villanueva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$28
65¢
$15
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$15
50¢
$16
45¢
$2.3K
40¢
← now
$29
35¢
$101
30¢
$2
25¢
$218
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.1K
10¢
$5
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Gonzalo Villanueva vs. Carlos Maria Zarate: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$147priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Gonzalo Villanueva (-1.5) vs Carlos Maria Zarate (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Carlos Maria Zarate
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Carlos Maria Zarate (-1.5) vs Gonzalo Villanueva (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Villanueva vs. Zarate: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Villanueva vs. Zarate: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Villanueva vs. Zarate: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Villanueva vs. Zarate: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.