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Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $1.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
76.0¢
MOUZ
24.0¢
FURIA
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution45Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$56.0K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $14.9K net·3 wallets·$18.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$7.5K@ 68¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

FURIA pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.0K
6h
−$15.8K
tracked
$56.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $14.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FURIA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 20:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than FURIA in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FURIA".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between FURIA and MOUZ in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than FURIA in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FURIA". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $57.2K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $52.2K gross
cruzNBA3 linked markets · $44.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FURIA UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $92 → $22 · 103s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MOUZ; negative values favor FURIA. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $3.0K
6hFURIA · $15.8K
24hFURIA · $40.0K

MOUZ price VWAP

Volume-weighted MOUZ price. FURIA fills are converted to the complementary MOUZ probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.0¢
VWAP 24h33.7¢▲ above by 42.3pp
VWAP 7d33.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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MOUZ price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$6
65¢
$0
60¢
$23
55¢
$5
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.8K
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$49.5K
25¢
$138
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

basementdweller3000FURIA$12.7K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.