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Spread: Purdue (-3.5)

● quote 31s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $416.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.9KEvent: Washington vs. Purdue
46.5¢
Purdue
53.5¢
Washington
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$56.8K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Purdue · $11.3K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$11.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPurdue$35.0K@ 47¢·0x4924…3782

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$60
6h
+$30.0K
tracked
$56.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: Purdue · $11.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Purdue" if Purdue win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 16 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Purdue" if Purdue win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4924…37822 linked markets · $47.6K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.3K gross
quavoo3 linked markets · $10.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Purdue@ 48.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Purdue; negative values favor Washington. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWashington · $60
6hPurdue · $30.0K
24hPurdue · $38.9K

Purdue price VWAP

Volume-weighted Purdue price. Washington fills are converted to the complementary Purdue probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h47.3¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Purdue price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$19
45¢
← now
$56.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPurdue$35.0K@ 47.0¢0x4924…3782🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPurdue$10.8K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Washington vs. Purdue
40.5¢$40.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 47.5
58.5¢$15.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 49.5
52.5¢$11.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 51.5
0.0¢$9priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Washington (-13.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 45.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Purdue (-0.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Washington (-5.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4924…3782Purdue$35.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Purdue$10.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.