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Spread: Memphis (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 27 minutesLiquidity: $372.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.3KEvent: Memphis vs. Tulane
51.5¢
Memphis
48.5¢
Tulane
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$63.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 16s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tulane · $6.0K net·5 wallets·$10.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMemphis$30.0K@ 53¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$348
6h
+$24.3K
tracked
$63.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: Tulane · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Memphis" if Memphis win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tulane".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 16 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Memphis" if Memphis win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tulane". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20264 linked markets · $19.2K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $17.0K gross
UpTheBlues4 linked markets · $6.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Memphis@ 53.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Memphis; negative values favor Tulane. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMemphis · $348
6hMemphis · $24.3K
24hMemphis · $31.7K

Memphis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Memphis price. Tulane fills are converted to the complementary Memphis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h52.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d52.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Memphis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$63.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMemphis$30.0K@ 53.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Memphis vs. Tulane: O/U 55.5
50.5¢$37.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-5.5)
55.5¢$18.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Memphis vs. Tulane
69.5¢$16.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-7.5)
0.0¢$9.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tulane (-20.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-8.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-14.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Memphis vs. Tulane: O/U 39.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaMemphis$30.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
quavooMemphis$15.4K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.