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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

● quote 184 min ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 10 daysLiquidity: $66.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $117.5KEvent: Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate

Indicative prices · 184 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
YES
99.8¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution24Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$36.3K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 300 min agoofficial metadata 184 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $31.5K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$31.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$28.3K@ 38¢·mr.ozi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$859
tracked
$36.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $31.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 184 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 300 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 184 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $140 → $435 · 47s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $859
24hNO · $26.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h34.77¢▼ below by 34.3pp
VWAP 7d35.04¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$35.4K
30¢
$243
25¢
$4.3K
20¢
$13
15¢
$23
10¢
$1.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$859

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$28.3K@ 37.77¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.