PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $109.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $138.3KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
71.0¢
YES
29.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$83.0K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 84 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $142.5K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$142.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$32.5K@ 72¢·nojnn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$39.0K
tracked
$83.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: YES · $142.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 84 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 72.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 71.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 72.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 74.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp6h CONFIRMED +5.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $39.0K
24hYES · $83.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.0¢
VWAP 24h72.0¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d71.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$60
75¢
$4.3K
70¢
← now
$96.7K
65¢
$44.3K
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$500
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$32.5K@ 72.0¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$32.4K@ 71.9¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$21.4K@ 69.4¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$10.8K@ 69.8¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—3 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
7.5¢$985.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
65.5¢$632.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$620.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
32.5¢$527.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
25.5¢$514.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91.5¢$416.4Kpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
26.5¢$394.3Kpriority30Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1¢$358.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

nojnnYes$105.9K
BUY VWAP 71.3¢·7 fills
8934394839Yes$19.5K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.