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LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $60.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $747.7KEvent: LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
65.0¢
Team Liquid
35.0¢
LYON
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:135 trades$278.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 57s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Liquid · $568 net·15 wallets·$6.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Liquid$25.0K@ 64¢·fantasy7788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Team Liquid pressure: $15.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.3K
6h
+$88.0K
tracked
$278.7K

15 verified profitable wallets: Team Liquid · $568 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 44

Since latest market sweep: -26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Liquid or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against LYON.

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Team Liquid.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Team Liquid and LYON in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Team Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $128.4K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $74.0K gross
fhiwbijd3 linked markets · $62.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY LYON@ 62.0¢40m ago
15m INVALIDATED -27.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Team Liquid1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Liquid@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Team Liquid@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp
Latest book event: Team Liquid UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $334 → $1.3K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Liquid; negative values favor LYON. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Liquid · $15.3K
6hTeam Liquid · $88.0K
24hTeam Liquid · $59.0K

Team Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Liquid price. LYON fills are converted to the complementary Team Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.0¢
VWAP 24h47.2¢▲ above by 17.8pp
VWAP 7d47.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$2.7K
60¢
$30.2K
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$4.8K
45¢
$133.5K
40¢
$97.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Liquid$25.0K@ 64.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYTeam Liquid$21.5K@ 47.4¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLYON$22.2K@ 54.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid$10.9K@ 46.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$11.1K@ 45.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$17.9K@ 45.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$17.6K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$14.8K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLYON$11.2K@ 55.9¢
calamansidios0x8606…db26
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYLYON$13.3K@ 55.0¢
Odzfx0x9770…0ff5
🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Team Liquid$114.8K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·10 fills
fantasy7788Team Liquid$25.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
StasPandaLYON$22.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
OdzfxLYON$13.3K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
calamansidiosLYON$11.2K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·1 fill
Jer-PredictLYON$10.7K
BUY VWAP 64.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.