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Columbus: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Aidan Mayo

● quote 13 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $35.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $191.0KEvent: Columbus: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Aidan Mayo
99.9¢
Abedallah Shelbayh
3.9¢
Aidan Mayo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$72.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 139 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aidan Mayo · $12.3K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$33.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAidan Mayo$12.7K@ 46¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$24.8K
tracked
$72.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Aidan Mayo · $12.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 139 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Abedallah Shelbayh and Aidan Mayo in the Columbus, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Abedallah Shelbayh' if Abedallah Shelbayh advances against Aidan Mayo. This market will resolve to 'Aidan Mayo' if Aidan Mayo advances against Abedallah Shelbayh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aidan Mayo DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $11.7K → $5.5K · 30s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Abedallah Shelbayh; negative values favor Aidan Mayo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAbedallah Shelbayh · $0
6hAidan Mayo · $24.8K
24hAidan Mayo · $24.8K

Abedallah Shelbayh price VWAP

Volume-weighted Abedallah Shelbayh price. Aidan Mayo fills are converted to the complementary Abedallah Shelbayh probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h64.4¢▲ above by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d64.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Abedallah Shelbayh price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.3K
90¢
$15
85¢
$2.7K
80¢
$10.8K
75¢
$424
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.9K
60¢
$7
55¢
$22
50¢
$46.7K
45¢
$31
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAidan Mayo$11.1K@ 50.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$12.7K@ 45.9¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Aidan Mayo$12.7K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Aidan Mayo$11.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.